Hi again! Today, I am writing about Bayesian traps which I have recently re-discovered in a video by Veritasium. This is part 2 of a 3 part post about mathematic and statistical oddities. If you haven’t seen the previous post about confirmation bias check it out here! OK, so let’s get into it. The example I remember about goes more or less like this:
You hear about this terrible disease going around that affects around 1:10000 people. This disease is lethal and asymptomatic so there is no easy way for you to know if you have it.
You decide to go to the doctor and she tells you there is a simple blood test you can take and the test is 99% accurate.
You decide to take the test and a week later the results come in. The test came out positive!
The question now is, should you start writing your will?
I hope you liked this example, next time I will write about the Simpson’s Paradox which is probably the scariest of them all. See you there!